Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment

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Images from the NASA Earth Observatory show a stark drop in pollution in Wuhan, China, when comparing NO₂ levels in early 2019 (top) and early 2020 (bottom).

The worldwide disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in numerous impacts on the environment and the climate. The severe decline in planned travel has caused many regions to experience a drop in air pollution. In China, lockdowns and other measures resulted in a 25 per cent reduction in carbon emissions and 50 percent reduction in nitrogen oxides emissions, which one Earth systems scientist estimated may have saved at least 77,000 lives over two months. However, the outbreak has also disrupted environmental diplomacy efforts, including causing the postponement of the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference, and the economic fallout from it is predicted to slow investment in green energy technologies.

Background

Up to 2020, increases in the amount of greenhouse gases produced since the beginning of the industrialization era caused average global temperatures on the Earth to rise, causing effects including the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels. In various forms, human activity caused environmental degradation, an anthropogenic impact.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, measures that were expected to be recommended to health authorities in the case of a pandemic included quarantines and social distancing.

Independently, also prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers argued that reduced economic activity would help decrease global warming as well as air and marine pollution, allowing the environment to slowly flourish.

Air quality

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TROPOMI data shows the NO2 levels in China in the beginning of 2020. Image from Earth Observatory.

Due to the coronavirus outbreak's impact on travel and industry, many regions experienced a drop in air pollution. Reducing air pollution can reduce both climate change and COVID-19 risks but it is not yet clear which types of air pollution (if any) are common risks to both climate change and COVID-19. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reported that methods to contain the spread of coronavirus, such as quarantines and travel bans, resulted in a 25 per cent reduction of carbon emission in China. In the first month of lockdowns, China produced approximately 200 million fewer metric tons of carbon dioxide than the same period in 2019, due to the reduction in air traffic, oil refining, and coal consumption. One Earth systems scientist estimated that this reduction may have saved at least 77,000 lives. However, Sarah Ladislaw from the Center for Strategic & International Studies argued that reductions in emissions due to economic downturns should not be seen as beneficial, stating that China's attempts to return to previous rates of growth amidst trade wars and supply chain disruptions in the energy market will worsen its environmental impact. Between 1 January and 11 March 2020, the European Space Agency observed a marked decline in nitrous oxide emissions from cars, power plants, and factories in the Po Valley region in northern Italy, coinciding with lockdowns in the region.

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The reduction in motor vehicle traffic has led to a drop in air pollution levels. Inset is the empty A1 motorway in Slovenia on 22 March 2020

NASA and ESA have been monitoring how the nitrogen dioxide gases dropped significantly during the initial Chinese phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic slowdown from the virus drastically dropped pollution levels, especially in cities like Wuhan, China by 25-40%. NASA uses a ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) to analyze and observe the ozone layer and pollutants such as NO₂, aerosols and others. This instrument helped NASA to process and interpret the data coming in due to the lock-downs worldwide. According to NASA scientists, the drop in NO₂ pollution began in Wuhan, China and slowly spread to the rest of the world. The drop was also very drastic because the virus coincided with the same time of year as the lunar year celebrations in China. During this festival, factories and businesses were closed for the last week of January to celebrate the lunar year festival. The drop in NO₂ in China did not achieve an air quality of the standard considered acceptable by health authorities. Other pollutants in the air such as aerosol emissions remained.

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NOx emission changes in East China

A joint research led by scientists from China and U.S. estimated that nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO₂) emissions decreased by 50% in East China during 23 January (Wuhan lockdown) - 9 February 2020, compared to 1–22 January 2020. Emissions then increased by 26% during 10 February (back-to-work day) - 12 March 2020, indicating possible increasing socioeconomic activities after most provinces allowed businesses to open. It is yet to be investigated what COVID-19 control measures are most efficient controlling virus spread and least socioeconomic impact.

Water quality

In Venice, the water in the canals cleared and experienced greater water flow and visibility of fish. The Venice mayor's office clarified that the increase in water clarity was due to the settling of sediment that is disturbed by boat traffic and mentioned the decrease in air pollution along the waterways.

Wildlife

Demand for fish and fish prices have both decreased due to the pandemic, and fishing fleets around the world sit mostly idle. Rainer Froese has said the fish biomass will increase due to the sharp decline in fishing, and projected that in European waters, some fish such as herring could double their biomass. As of April 2020, signs of aquatic recovery remain mostly anecdotal.

As people are staying at home and travelling less, some animals have been spotted in cities. Sea turtles across the world are daring to lay their eggs on beaches they once avoided (such as the coast of the Bay of Bengal). This because there is less human interference and light pollution.

Litter

As a consequence of the unprecedented use of disposable face masks, significant numbers are entering the natural environment, adding to the worldwide burden of plastic waste. There are also cloth face masks however.

Research and development

Despite a temporary decline in global carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency warned that the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus outbreak may prevent or delay companies from investing in green energy. However, extended quarantine periods have boosted adoption of remote work policies.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) announced that a worldwide reduction in aircraft flights due to the pandemic could impact the accuracy of weather forecasts, citing commercial airlines' use of Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) as an integral contribution to weather forecast accuracy. The ECMWF predicted that AMDAR coverage would decrease by 65% or more due to the drop in commercial flights.

Politics

The pandemic has also impacted environmental diplomacy and climate diplomacy, as the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference was postponed to 2021 in response to the pandemic after its venue was converted to a field hospital. This conference was crucial as nations were scheduled to submit enhanced nationally determined contributions to the Paris Agreement, with enhanced ambition. The pandemic also limits the ability of nations, particularly developing nations with low state capacity, to submit nationally determined contributions, as they are focusing on the pandemic.

Time argued for three possible risks: that preparations for the November 2020 Glasgow conference planned to follow the 2015 Paris Agreement were disrupted; that the public would see global warming as a lower priority issue than the pandemic, weakening the pressure on politicians; and that a desire to "restart" the global economy would cause an excess in extra greenhouse gas production. However the drop in oil prices during the coronavirus recession could be a good opportunity to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies, according to the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.

Carbon Tracker argues that China should not stimulate the economy by building planned coal-fired power stations, because many would have negative cashflow and would become stranded assets.

Predicted rebound effect

The restarting of greenhouse-gas producing industries and transport following the COVID-19 lockdowns was hypothesised as an event that would contribute to increasing greenhouse gas production rather than reducing it. In the transport sector, the pandemic could trigger a number of effects, including behavioural changes – such as more teleworking and teleconferencing  and changes in  business  models –  which could in turn translate in reductions of emissions from transport. On the other hand, there could be a shift away from public transport, driven by fear of contagion, and reliance on single-occupancy cars, which would significantly increase emissions. During the pandemic, city planners are also creating new cycle paths in some cities however.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development recommends governments continue to enforce existing air pollution regulations during the COVID-19 crisis and after the crisis, and channel financial support measures to public transport providers to enhance capacity and quality with focus on reducing crowding and promoting cleaner facilities.

See also

• Social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

External links

• United Nations: Six Nature Facts Related to Coronaviruses