2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

Not to be confused with 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi.

2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi

November 6 and 27, 2018
Turnout	48.14%
x150px x150px Candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith Mike Espy Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 486,769 420,819 Percentage 53.6% 46.4%
170px County Results Hyde-Smith:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Espy:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Elected U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican

The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Mississippi. The election was held to fill the seat vacated by Senator Thad Cochran when he resigned from the Senate, effective April 1, 2018, due to health concerns. Republican governor Phil Bryant appointed Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy created by Cochran's resignation. Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which expires in January 2021.

On November 6, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat currently held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot.

Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, was held on November 27, 2018, in which Hyde-Smith defeated Espy. Despite her reasonable margin of victory, Hyde-Smith significantly under-performed the states's partisan lean, as well as the 20-point margin of victory of Roger Wicker in his senatorial election, held concurrently with the first round of the special election in which the combined GOP candidates won 58% to the combined Dem total of 42%. Espy's 46.4% of the vote is the best Democratic performance in a Mississippi senate election since the 1982 election.

The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress from Mississippi.

Candidates

• Note: Special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. The parties below identify which party label each candidate would have run under if given the option.

Declared

• Tobey Bartee (Democratic Party), former Gautier, Mississippi city councilman.
• Mike Espy (Democratic Party), former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former U.S. Representative
• Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican Party), incumbent U.S. Senator and former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce
• Chris McDaniel (Republican Party), state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014

Declined

• Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4) (Democratic Party)
• David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader (running for Class 1 U.S. Senate seat) (Democratic Party)
• Phil Bryant, Governor of Mississippi (Republican Party)
• Jamie Franks, chairman of the Lee County Democratic Party and former state representative (Democratic Party)
• Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to former governor Kirk Fordice (Republican Party)

Withdrawn

• Jason Shelton, Mayor of Tupelo (Democratic Party)

General election

Endorsements

Cindy Hyde-Smith

U.S. Executive Branch officials Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States U.S. Senators Trent Lott, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader and U.S. Senator from Mississippi (1989–2007) Thad Cochran, former U.S. Senator from Mississippi (1978–2018) Roger Wicker, Mississippi Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Joni Ernst, Iowa U.S. Representatives Gregg Harper (MS-3) Trent Kelly (MS-1) Steven Palazzo (MS-4) U.S. Governors Haley Barbour, former Governor of Mississippi (2004–2012) Phil Bryant, Mississippi Statewide officials Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives Delbert Hosemann, Mississippi Secretary of State Lynn Fitch, State Treasurer of Mississippi Tate Reeves, Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi Stacey Pickering, State Auditor of Mississippi Mike Chaney, Insurance Commissioner of Mississippi Political operatives Henry Barbour, Republican National Committeeman for Mississippi Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi Connor Gibson, Mississippi Teenage Republicans Vice-Chairman Organizations U.S. Chamber of Commerce National Association of Realtors Mississippi Manufacturers Association National Rifle Association National Right to Life Committee Susan B. Anthony List

Chris McDaniel

U.S. Representatives Ron Paul (TX-14, former) State legislators Dana Criswell, state representative Steve Hopkins, state representative Tony Smith, former state senator Political operatives Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party Other individuals Tommy Ferrell, former President of the National Sheriffs' Association Bryan Fischer, host of the American Family Association's conservative talk radio program Focal Point Lars Larson, talk radio show host Mark Levin, lawyer, author, and radio personality Kelli Ward, former Arizona State Senator and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 Organizations Adams County GOP Executive Committee Jones County GOP Executive Committee Tate County GOP Executive Committee Panola County GOP Executive Committee Gun Owners of America Americans for Legal Immigration PAC

Mike Espy

U.S. Executive Branch officials Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States US Senators Cory Booker, U.S. Senator (D-NJ) Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator (D-CA) Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator (D-HI) Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator (D-MA) U.S. Representatives Ayanna Pressley, U.S Representative elect (MA-7) Bennie Thompson, U.S Representative (MS-2) Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (AL-7) U.S. Governors Deval Patrick, former U.S Governor of Massachusetts Mayors Eric Garcetti, Mayor of Los Angeles Mitch Landrieu, former Mayor of New Orleans Individuals Wesley Clark, U.S General and former 2004 presidential candidate Alyssa Milano, actress and activist Jim Hood, Mississippi Attorney General and Candidate for Governor in 2019. Organizations Democracy for America

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018
Candidate	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Cindy Hyde-Smith	$1,654,032	$264,232	$1,389,799
Mike Espy	$408,236	$126,760	$281,476
Chris McDaniel	$327,263	$171,208	$156,054
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cindy Hyde-Smith	Mike Espy	Chris McDaniel	Tobey Bartee	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 2–4, 2018	1,003	–	27%	40%	28%	1%	–	–
Marist College	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	38%	29%	15%	2%	<1%	15%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	36%	28%	14%	3%	1%	17%
SurveyMonkey	September 9–24, 2018	985	± 4.3%	24%	25%	19%	4%	–	27%
Neighborhood Research Corporation (Courageous Conservatives PAC)	August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018	304	± 5.0%	27%	28%	18%	–	–	27%
The Mellman Group (Espy)	August 1–7, 2018	600	± 4.0%	29%	27%	17%	–	–	–
Triumph Campaigns	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	41%	27%	15%	1%	–	16%
GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)	May 1–3, 2018	500	± 4.4%	30%	22%	17%	–	4%	–
Triumph Campaigns	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	33%	33%	13%	–	6%	15%
Chism Strategies (Espy)	March 27, 2018	603	± 4.0%	27%	34%	21%	–	–	18%

Results

File:MS US Senate Special 2018.svg

Results by county:

Hyde-Smith

•   Hyde-Smith—60–70%
•   Hyde-Smith—50–60%
•   Hyde-Smith—40–50%
•   Hyde-Smith—<40%

Espy

•   Espy—<40%
•   Espy—40–50%
•   Espy—50–60%
•   Espy—60–70%
•   Espy—70–80%
•   Espy—80–90%

McDaniel

•   McDaniel—<40%
•   McDaniel—40–50%

United States Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Nonpartisan	Cindy Hyde-Smith (inc.)	389,995	41.25%
	Nonpartisan	Mike Espy	386,742	40.90%
	Nonpartisan	Chris McDaniel	154,878	16.38%
	Nonpartisan	Tobey Bartee	13,852	1.47%
Total votes			945,467	100%

Runoff

During the run-off campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous."

Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted."

On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, now an historical site. The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	October 12, 2018
Inside Elections	Likely R	November 20, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	October 11, 2018
Fox News	Lean R	October 10, 2018
CNN	Solid R	October 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics	Likely R	October 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight	Lean R	November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cindy Hyde-Smith	Mike Espy	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 25, 2018	1,211	–	51%	46%	–	–
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns	November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018	684	± 4.0%	54%	44%	–	1%
Marist College	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	50%	36%	1%	13%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	47%	38%	1%	14%
The Mellman Group (Espy)	August 1–7, 2018	600	± 4.0%	38%	41%	–	–
Triumph Campaigns	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	48%	34%	–	18%
Mason-Dixon	April 12–14, 2018	625	± 4.0%	46%	34%	–	20%
Triumph Campaigns	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	42%	36%	–	23%

Results

United States Senate special election runoff in Mississippi, 2018

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Nonpartisan	Cindy Hyde-Smith (inc.)	486,769	53.63%	-6.27%
	Nonpartisan	Mike Espy	420,819	46.37%	+8.48%
Total votes			907,588	100%	N/A
	Republican hold

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics

Official campaign websites

• Mike Espy for Senate
• Cindy Hyde-Smith for Senate