2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
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Template:Elections in Virginia sidebar The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia state offices. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam was ineligible to run for reelection, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms.
Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin defeated Democratic former Governor Terry McAuliffe to become the 74th Governor of Virginia. Youngkin won the Republican nomination at the party's May 8, 2021 convention, which was held in 37 polling locations across the state,[2] and was officially declared the nominee on May 10.[3] The Democratic Party selected its candidate in a June 8, 2021 primary election,[4] which McAuliffe easily won.[5]
On November 2, in the general election, Republican Glenn Youngkin was projected to defeat Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe, making him the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009. Republicans also flipped the lieutenant governor and attorney general races that were held concurrently.[6] This election, as well as the concurrent lieutenant governor and attorney general elections, marked the first time since the 1969 gubernatorial election that a Republican won Virginia without Loudoun County, and the first time since the 1960 presidential election that a Republican won without Prince William County.
A major upset,[7] Youngkin's win was widely seen as a backlash against the social, racial, and COVID-19 migration policies of the Biden administration; its Build Back Better Act and perceived economic interventionism; as well as cultural liberalism and "wokeism" within the Democratic Party.[8][9][10] Education, public health, and cultural issues were the centerpiece of Youngkin's platform throughout the race.[11][12][13] Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within public schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 mandates and restrictions, and advocate for a low tax and small government agenda within the state of Virginia.[14][15][16] This election saw Virginia continue its historical tendency of electing governors of the party opposite that of the sitting President, after not following it once in 2013, when McAuliffe was elected.
Contents
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia (2014–2018) and former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2001–2005)[17][18]
Eliminated in primary
- Jennifer Carroll Foy, former state delegate for Virginia's 2nd House of Delegates district (2018–2020)[19]
- Lee J. Carter, state delegate for Virginia's 50th House of Delegates district[20]
- Justin Fairfax, lieutenant governor of Virginia[21]
- Jennifer McClellan, state senator for Virginia's 9th Senate district and former delegate for Virginia's 71st House of Delegates district (2006–2017)[22]
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Withdrew
- Mark Herring, attorney general of Virginia (2014–present) and former state senator for Virginia's 33rd Senate district (2006–2014) (running for re-election)[27]
Endorsements
Jennifer Carroll Foy |
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Lee J. Carter |
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Justin Fairfax |
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Debates
Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. A debate between the five candidates took place on April 6, 2021.[66] Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax compared scrutiny of his sexual assault allegations to that of the cases of George Floyd and Emmett Till in the debate.[67]
Polling
Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jennifer Carroll Foy |
Lee Carter |
Justin Fairfax |
Terry McAuliffe |
Jennifer McClellan |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roanoke College | May 24 – June 1, 2021 | 637 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 49% | 9% | 0% | 24% |
Christopher Newport University | April 11–20, 2021 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 47% | 6% | 2% | 31% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | April 12–13, 2021 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 42% | 8% | – | 29% |
Christopher Newport University | January 31 – February 14, 2021 | 488 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 54% |
YouGov Blue (D) | February 6–11, 2021 | 235 (RV) | ± 7.4% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 30% |
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 1] | January 12–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | – | 14% | 42% | 6% | – | 30% |
Expedition Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 2] | December 2020 | – (LV) | – | 5% | – | 16% | 32% | 8% | – | 38% |
Results
Democratic primary results[68] | ||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Terry McAuliffe | 307,367 | 62.10% | |
Democratic | Jennifer Carroll Foy | 98,052 | 19.81% | |
Democratic | Jennifer McClellan | 58,213 | 11.76% | |
Democratic | Justin Fairfax | 17,606 | 3.56% | |
Democratic | Lee J. Carter | 13,694 | 2.77% | |
Total votes | 494,932 | 100.00% |
Republican convention
The Republican nomination process for the 2021 elections was the subject of a lengthy and acrimonious debate within the Republican Party of Virginia.[69][70] On December 5, 2020, the state Republican Party voted to hold a convention instead of a primary by a vote of 41 to 28.[71] State Senator Amanda Chase initially indicated that she would run as an independent,[72] but later decided to seek nomination at the convention; on the day of the convention, she acknowledged that if she did not win the nomination, she may reconsider and run as an independent, although she eventually decided against this.[73] Faced with pressure from the Chase campaign and activists to return to a primary, the state committee debated scrapping the convention on January 23, 2021. These efforts were unsuccessful and the party reaffirmed their decision to hold a convention.[74] On February 9, 2021, the Chase campaign sued the Republican Party of Virginia, arguing that the convention is illegal under COVID-19-related executive orders signed by Governor Ralph Northam.[75] The Richmond Circuit Court dismissed the Chase campaign's lawsuit on February 19, 2021.[76] The Republican Party of Virginia announced on March 26, 2021, that seven gubernatorial candidates had qualified to appear on the convention ballot.[77] On April 11, 2021, the state Republican Party Rules Committee voted to tabulate the ballots by hand; three days later, however, the committee reversed itself and decided to use a vendor's software-based tabulation method.[69]
On April 20, 2021, five candidates (Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin) participated in a forum at Liberty University in Lynchburg.[78] Two candidates, Octavia Johnson and Pete Snyder, did not attend the forum.[78][79]
The state Republican convention to select the party's nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general took place on May 8, 2021,[70][69] in "unassembled" format,[69] with ballots to be cast remotely at up to 37 locations statewide[70] using ranked-choice voting.[69] The complex process fueled internal party disputes.[80] Up to 40,000 people were anticipated to become delegates, although not all would necessarily cast votes.[69] Local Republican Party leaders control the application process to become a delegate, decide who can participate (voter registration in Virginia does not include a space to indicate party affiliation), and select the convention voting site.[80] In the preceding Virginia Republican gubernatorial convention, 12,000 participated.[69]
Orthodox Jewish Virginia Republicans asked the party to allow absentee voting for religious reasons (May 8 is on the Jewish Sabbath), but the State Central Committee initially voted down the request, failing to achieve the 75% supermajority needed to change the rules.[81] However, the Virginia GOP ultimately reversed course and allowed those with religious objections to vote in the May 8 convention via absentee ballots. Republican candidates Kirk Cox, Peter Doran, and Glenn Youngkin had criticized the previous decision to not accommodate Orthodox Jews.[82]
Candidates
Nominated at convention
- Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group[83]
Defeated at convention
- Amanda Chase, state senator for Virginia's 11th Senate district[84]
- Kirk Cox, state delegate for Virginia's 66th House of Delegates district and former Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2018–2020)[85]
- Sergio de la Peña, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs[86]
- Peter Doran, former CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis[87]
- Octavia Johnson, former sheriff of Roanoke City (2006–2013)[88]
- Pete Snyder, entrepreneur, marketing executive, and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2013[89]
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Did not qualify
Declined
- Charles William Carrico Sr., former state senator for Virginia's 40th Senate district and retired state trooper (endorsed Cox)[96]
- Neil Chatterjee, former chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission[97]
- Barbara Comstock, former U.S. Representative for Virginia's 10th congressional district[98]
- Nick Freitas, state delegate for Virginia's 30th House of Delegates district, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and nominee for Virginia's 7th congressional district in 2020[99]
- Emmett Hanger, state senator for Virginia's 24th Senate district[100]
- Bill Stanley, state senator for Virginia's 20th Senate district[101]
- Corey Stewart, attorney, former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and candidate for governor of Virginia in 2017[102] (endorsed Youngkin)
Endorsements
Amanda Chase |
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Kirk Cox |
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Pete Snyder |
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Glenn Youngkin |
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Polling
Graphical summary
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- Without convention polling
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Primary polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Sergio de la Peña |
Peter Doran |
Octavia Johnson |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) | May 5–6, 2021 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 25% | – | 25% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] | April 2021 | 695 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 16% | 21% | – | 30% |
Christopher Newport University | January 31 – February 14, 2021 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 17% | 10% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | 55% |
YouGov Blue (D) | February 6–11, 2021 | 170 (RV) | ± 8.6% | 24% | 7% | 1% | – | – | 13% | 5% | 0% | 54% |
Convention polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 4] | April 29 – May 3, 2021 | 3,896 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 38% | 13% | 3% |
Results
Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[118] | ||||||||||||
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Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | ||||||
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
Glenn Youngkin | 4131.80 | 32.9% | 4140.55 | 33.0% | 4148.91 | 33.0% | 4331.93 | 34.5% | 5311.43 | 42.3% | 6869.22 | 54.7% |
Pete Snyder | 3241.61 | 25.8% | 3243.84 | 25.8% | 3249.71 | 25.9% | 3502.91 | 27.9% | 4078.25 | 32.5% | 5684.78 | 45.3% |
Amanda Chase | 2605.89 | 20.8% | 2611.54 | 20.8% | 2619.83 | 20.9% | 2859.39 | 22.8% | 3164.32 | 25.2% | Eliminated | |
Kirk Cox | 1693.58 | 13.5% | 1698.13 | 13.5% | 1705.90 | 13.6% | 1859.77 | 14.8% | Eliminated | |||
Sergio de la Peña | 805.35 | 6.4% | 812.44 | 6.5% | 829.65 | 6.6% | Eliminated | |||||
Peter Doran | 42.28 | 0.3% | 47.50 | 0.4% | Eliminated | |||||||
Octavia Johnson | 33.48 | 0.3% | Eliminated |
Other parties and independents
Candidates
Declared
- Princess Blanding (Liberation Party), teacher, former school administrator, activist, and sister of Marcus-David Peters[119][120]
Did not qualify
- Frankie Bowers (Independent)[120]
- Brad Froman (Independent), business owner[121][120]
- Timothy Phipps (Constitution Party)[122][123][120]
Declined
- Amanda Chase, state senator for Virginia's 11th Senate district[124][125]
- Denver Riggleman, former U.S. Representative (VA-05)[126][127][128][120]
General election
On August 26, the Republican Party of Virginia filed a lawsuit to disqualify McAuliffe from appearing on the ballot in November. The suit alleges that McAuliffe did not sign his declaration of candidacy, which is needed to qualify in the primary and general election.[129] It was found that the declaration of candidacy was missing his signature, although it includes two witnesses' signatures. The suit also alleges the witnesses violated state law by witnessing a signing that didn't occur.[130]
Debates
Canceled debates
On July 12, Glenn Youngkin announced he would not take part in the July 24 debate hosted by the Virginia Bar Association because of a donation made by one of the moderators, Judy Woodruff.[131][132] Woodruff had made a $250 donation to the Clinton Foundation relief fund after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The foundation is run by Hillary and Bill Clinton, who are close allies to Terry McAuliffe.[131] On July 28, after discovering that Youngkin would participate in an 'election integrity' rally at Liberty University, McAuliffe declined a debate at the same university.[133] On August 2, Youngkin declined participation in The People's Debate.[134] The two candidates pledged to two debates; one on September 16 and one on September 28.[135]
First debate
Youngkin and McAuliffe met at Appalachian School of Law in Grundy, Virginia on September 16, 2021, one day before early voting began.[136] The debate was hosted by USA Today Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page.[137]
The debate started with discussion over a recent COVID-19 mandate President Joe Biden signed requiring federal workers, employees of large companies, and contractors to be vaccinated.[138][139] Youngkin doubted if Biden had the power to authorize the mandate, and supported personal choice for receiving the vaccine. McAuliffe supported the mandate and accused Youngkin of spreading "anti-vax" rhetoric.[139] Youngkin denied the claim.[135] McAuliffe also supported requiring vaccines for students over the age of 12.[140] McAuliffe has also repeatedly made false statements about COVID-19, often inflating the number of cases.[141]
The discussion moved to climate change, where Youngkin stated he would use all sources of energy to address climate change without "putting [the] entire energy grid at risk for political purposes." McAuliffe called for clean energy in the state by 2035 and stressed the idea for the state to be a production hub.[135]
The discussion then moved to abortion, specifically the recent Texas Heartbeat Act signed by Texas Governor Greg Abbott (who endorsed Youngkin).[142] When asked whether or not Youngkin would sign a similar bill, Youngkin stated that he would not sign the bill, and that he was pro-life and supports exclusions in cases such as rape, incest, and when the life of the mother is endangered. He also stated he supports a "pain-threshold" bill that would ban most abortions at the point when a fetus can feel pain, which proponents of this type of law define as 20 weeks.[135] In addition, Youngkin stated McAuliffe was "the most extreme pro-abortion candidate in America today".[142] In response to Youngkin, McAuliffe stated he was a "brick wall" on women's rights and would protect a woman's decision over abortion and supports reducing the number of doctors needed to certify a third-trimester abortion from three to one.[142] McAuliffe falsely stated that Youngkin wants to completely ban abortion.[143]
The next discussion topic was over election integrity. After supporting an "Election Integrity Taskforce", Youngkin stated he does not believe there has been "significant fraud", and stated the issue of fraud as "a democracy issue". Youngkin stressed that he believes that "Joe Biden's our president" and criticized the withdrawal from Afghanistan. McAuliffe took note to Donald Trump's endorsement of Youngkin, calling him a "Trump wannabe".[139] Both candidates stated they would concede the election if the other came out on top.[142]
The final discussion topic was over the economy. McAuliffe attacked Youngkin on his top economic advisor, Stephen Moore, who advised Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign. Youngkin defended Virginia's right-to-work law.[142]
Second debate
Youngkin and McAuliffe met at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce on September 28, 2021.[144] The event was hosted by Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press. Less than a week before the debate, one of the panelists, Michael Fauntroy, withdrew from the debate after tweets against the GOP and Evangelicals were found.[145]
On the discussion topic of COVID-19, Youngkin and McAuliffe reiterated their stances on the vaccines. Youngkin stated he believed in mandates for vaccines for diseases measles, mumps and rubella, but not for COVID-19, saying that "the data associated with those vaccines is something that we should absolutely understand the difference between this vaccine."[146] Youngkin said people should get vaccinated against COVID-19.[146]
During the debate, Youngkin noted that Trump was regularly mentioned by McAuliffe, who again called Youngkin a "Trump wannabe."[146][147] When asked, Youngkin stated he would support Trump if he were to become the Republican nominee in 2024.[147]
Approximately 15 minutes into the debate, third party candidate Princess Blanding, who was in the audience, disrupted the debate, screaming that her exclusion from the debate was "unfair" and claiming that McAuliffe would not win the election.[148] After being escorted out by security, she claimed that being excluded from the debate was racist and sexist, and that it constituted "censorship".[149]
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[150] | Tossup | October 5, 2021 |
Inside Elections[151] | Tossup | November 1, 2021 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[152] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2021 |
Endorsements
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
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Polling
- Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
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Real Clear Politics | October 20–31, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 46.8% | 48.5% | 4.8% | Youngkin +1.7% |
FiveThirtyEight | August 1 – November 1, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 47.0% | 47.9% | 5.1% | Youngkin +1.0% |
Average | 46.9% | 48.2% | 5.0% | Youngkin +1.4% |
- Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Princess Blanding (Lib.) |
Other | Undecided |
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Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | 2% | – | 3% |
Targoz Market Research | October 26 – November 1, 2021 | 747 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 29–31, 2021 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 2% | 2% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 27–30, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 2% | – | 6% |
Echelon Insights | October 27–29, 2021 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | – | 4% |
Roanoke College | October 14–28, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
Fox News | October 24–27, 2021 | 1,212 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% |
1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | – | 1% | 1% | ||
Washington Post/Schar School | October 20–26, 2021 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 2%[lower-alpha 3] | 3% |
49% | 45% | – | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 4% | ||||
918 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 5] | 2% | ||
49% | 48% | – | 0%[lower-alpha 6] | 2% | ||||
Christopher Newport University | October 17–25, 2021 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 1% |
Suffolk University | October 21–24, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% |
Emerson College | October 22–23, 2021 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 5] | October 20–21, 2021 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | – | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | October 19–21, 2021 | 816 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 6] | October 18–21, 2021 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 43% | – | 1% | 15% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | October 9–21, 2021 | 722 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 41% | 38% | – | 10% | 11% |
Monmouth University | October 16–19, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 2% | 7% |
1,005 (LV)[lower-alpha 7] | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | |||
1,005 (LV)[lower-alpha 8] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
Data for Progress (D) | October 4–15, 2021 | 1,589 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 2% | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 11–13, 2021 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 3% |
Fox News | October 10–13, 2021 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 2% | 5% |
726 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
Schoen Cooperman Research (D) | October 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | – | 0% | 10% |
YouGov/CBS News | October 4–11, 2021 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | – | 2% | 0% |
Christopher Newport University | September 27 – October 6, 2021 | 802 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | 1% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2021 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% |
Fox News | September 26–29, 2021 | 901 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 1% | 7% |
Roanoke College | September 12–26, 2021 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Monmouth University | September 22–26, 2021 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | – | 2% | 8% |
801 (LV)[lower-alpha 7] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
801 (LV)[lower-alpha 8] | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | |||
Global Strategy Group (D) | September 16–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 6] | September 17–19, 2021 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | – | 1% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 7] | September 17–18, 2021 | 875 (V) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 42% | – | – | 13% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | September 7–15, 2021 | 731 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 43% | 34% | – | 10% | 13% |
Emerson College | September 13–14, 2021 | 778 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 5% |
University of Mary Washington | September 7–13, 2021 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 38% | 2% | 6%[lower-alpha 9] | 11% |
885 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 2% | – | – | ||
528 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 48% | 2% | 2%[lower-alpha 10] | 6% | ||
Washington Post/Schar School | September 7–13, 2021 | 907 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 3% | 4% |
728 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 8] | August 30 – September 2, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | 3% | – | 4% |
48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 26–29, 2021 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% |
Monmouth University | August 24–29, 2021 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% |
802 (LV)[lower-alpha 7] | 47% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
802 (LV)[lower-alpha 8] | 49% | 42% | – | – | – | |||
Christopher Newport University | August 15–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 41% | 3% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) | August 17–21, 2021 | 1,653 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | 3% | – | 5% |
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 9] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,334 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
Roanoke College | August 3–17, 2021 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | August 4–15, 2021 | 770 (RV) | ± 5.4% | 40% | 37% | – | 15% | 9% |
~747 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 40% | 37% | – | 14% | 9% | ||
co/efficient (R) | August 8–9, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 8% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 8] | August 3–5, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
51% | 45% | – | – | 4% | ||||
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 10] | July 25–27, 2021 | 762 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 2% | – | 13% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 8–10, 2021 | 1,104 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 4% | 4% |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 11] | July 6–9, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 2% | 10% |
JMC Analytics and Polling (R) | June 9–12, 2021 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | – | – | 12% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 8] | June 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 21, 2021 | |
---|---|
Candidate | Amount raised |
Glenn Youngkin | $57,731,920 |
Terry McAuliffe | $57,370,996 |
Princess Blanding | $34,771 |
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[233] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Glenn Youngkin | 1,626,048 | 50.9 | ||
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party of Virginia/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Democratic Party of Virginia|Template:Democratic Party of Virginia/meta/shortname]] | Terry McAuliffe | 1,543,948 | 48.4 | |
Liberation | Princess Blanding | 22,187 | 0.7 | ||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | 3,192,183 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
Turnout | |||||
Registered electors | 5,951,353 | ||||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Results by county and city
County | McAuliffe | Youngkin | Blanding | Others | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percent | Votes | Percent | Votes | Percent | Votes | Percent | |
Accomack | 4,921 | 38.8% | 7,709 | 60.7% | 66 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% |
Albemarle | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alexandria | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alleghany | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Amelia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Amherst | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Appomattox | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Arlington | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Augusta | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bath | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bedford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bland | 364 | 13.8% | 2,272 | 85.9% | 9 | 0.3% | 0 | 0% |
Botetourt | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bristol | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Brunswick | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Buchanan | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Buckingham | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Buena Vista | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Campbell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Caroline | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Carroll | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charles City | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlotte | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlottesville | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chesapeake | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chesterfield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Clarke | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Colonial Heights | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Covington | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Craig | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Culpeper | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cumberland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Danville | 6,839 | 53.4% | 5,891 | 46.0% | 80 | 0.6% | 5 | 0% |
Dickenson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Dinwiddie | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Emporia | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Essex | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fairfax County | 265,621 | 64.4% | 144,502 | 35.0% | 2,180 | 0.5% | — | — |
Fairfax | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Falls Church | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fauquier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Floyd | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluvanna | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Franklin County | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Franklin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frederick | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fredericksburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Galax | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Giles | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gloucester | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Goochland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Grayson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Greene | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Greensville | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Halifax | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hampton | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hanover | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Harrisonburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Henrico | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Henry | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Highland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hopewell | 3,070 | 49.1% | 3,087 | 49.4% | 86 | 1.4% | 5 | 0.1% |
Isle of Wight | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
James City | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
King and Queen | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
King George | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
King William | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lancaster | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lee | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lexington | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Loudoun | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Louisa | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lunenburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lynchburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Madison | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Manassas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Manassas Park | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Martinsville | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mathews | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mecklenburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Middlesex | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Montgomery | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nelson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New Kent | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Newport News | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Norfolk | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Northampton | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Northumberland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Norton | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nottoway | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Orange | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Page | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Patrick | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Petersburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Pittsylvania | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Poquoson | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portsmouth | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Powhatan | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prince Edward | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prince George | 4,559 | 34.6% | 8,524 | 64.7% | 76 | 0.6% | 13 | 0.1% |
Prince William | 100,410 | 58.4% | 70,439 | 40.9% | 1,172 | 0.7% | — | — |
Pulaski | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Radford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rappahannock | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Richmond County | 936 | 29.4% | 2,225 | 69.9% | 20 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.1% |
Richmond | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Roanoke County | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Roanoke | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rockbridge | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rockingham | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Russell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Salem | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Scott | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Shenandoah | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Smyth | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Southampton | 2,710 | 34.7% | 5,080 | 64.9% | 20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0% |
Spotsylvania | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stafford | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Staunton | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Suffolk | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Surry | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sussex | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Tazewell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Virginia Beach | 81,875 | 45.5% | 96,826 | 53.8% | 1,208 | 0.7% | — | — |
Warren | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Washington | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Waynesboro | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Westmoreland | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Williamsburg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Winchester | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wise | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wythe | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
York | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
See also
- 2021 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2021 Virginia lieutenant gubernatorial election
- 2021 Virginia Attorney General election
- 2021 Virginia House of Delegates election
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
- ↑ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
- ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
- ↑ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
- ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
- ↑ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
- Partisan clients
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project
References
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 199.0 199.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 200.0 200.1 200.2 200.3 200.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 202.0 202.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.-->
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.-->
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.-->
- ↑ 206.0 206.1 206.2 206.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 213.0 213.1 213.2 213.3 213.4 213.5 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 214.0 214.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 215.0 215.1 215.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 231.0 231.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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